Sweet Stride

Week 8 Picks

Jax+10 @ Houston

Don’t expect Jacksonville to score many points this season, but if their defense plays anywhere close to the performance they gave on Monday night it will keep them in some games.

Arizona @ Baltimore-13

Most of the public will take Arizona plus the points given Baltimore’s most recent offensive horror show, but the Ravens are a different team at home and they will be looking to take out their frustration on a bad team.

Saints @ Rams+14

Feel like this is an overreaction line given the Saints clinic they put on Sunday night. The Rams are pretty horrible but it is too hard to pass them up getting two full touchdowns at home.

Miami @ Giants-10

Miami is horrible, and we still don’t know what to make of the Giants who just happen to sit on top of the confusing NFC East. They have put up at least 24 points in 5 of 6 games this year so we know they are capable of scoring. Don’t really expect this game to be very competitive, even with Sparano coaching for his job (which could be too late to save anyway).

Indy+10 @ Titans

Have to think Indy will wake up and have a chip on their shoulder after being laughed at this week. (Why is there not more talk of Caldwell losing his job? He is unarguably the worst coach in the league!) As far as the “suck for Luck” sweepstakes goes I think Miami is the worst team and St. Louis and Indy are right behind them. Indy has played in a few tight games that they could have won (Cindy, Pittsburgh) mostly thanks to the handful of playmakers they have on defense, when they decide to strap up. This game should stay close against a Tennessee team who has looked pretty bad in their last two games.

Minnesota @ Carolina-3

Cam Newton certainly looks like the real deal; these Panthers have a bright future. Minnesota played a scrappy game against a vastly superior team last week. Ponder gave them a little spark at times but I expect him to have enough “growing pains” to keep them from winning many games this year…Peterson is a beast but it is hard to be one dimensional and win in this league.

Washington @ Buffalo-6

Washington has issues. Buffalo has proven in spite of their defensive issues they can score points in bunches and win shootouts. Like Buffalo by at least a TD in this one. Still have Buffalo and Pittsburgh as my AFC wild card teams.

Detroit-3 @ Denver

Well Detroit has certainly fallen back to earth the last couple weeks as I kind of anticipated would happen at some point. However I expect their offense to overpower Denver and the “Tebow effect” only goes so far in my book. I am a semi-believer that he will make enough of a difference to grab them an extra win or two for Denver, but they will not have the offensive weapons to keep up in this one.

NE-2.5 @ PIT

Give Pittsburgh credit for beating two bad teams and one mediocre team in the last 3 games because they typically handle their business against inferior opponents. However I expect NE to expose them. NE is as close as it comes to a dominant team in the AFC where there is a ton of parity. New England should win by a full 7.

Cleveland+10 @ SF

Cleveland has not looked as good as their 3-3 record this year. They have had a very soft schedule and should have another win or two at this point for a team I predicted to be 8-8. That being said I am slow to jump on this SF bandwagon. In today’s NFL I just cannot see SF making a serious run with Alex Smith as their starting QB. Their defense is good enough to win them some close games but I do not see them blowing teams out this year. Cleveland is just scrappy enough to where I expect them to keep this game within single digits.

CIN-2.5 @ SEA

Seattle is just plain bad. I still don’t know entirely what to make of Cincy, and I know they are traveling to the west coast which is always difficult…but laying less than three I have to take them. Don’t expect Seattle’s offense to score more than 13 against a tough Cincy D.

DAL+3.5 @ Philly

I have a weakness for Dallas. I know it seems to be the same song and dance with them every year but I see the flashes of what they are capable of and I am enough of a sucker to think they could be capable of winning the NFC East. I know they are more than capable of disappointing me but they have had more moments of “togetherness” this season than Philly has. There are rumors of internal power struggles in Philly…I am not ready to write them off yet but the extra half point at +3.5 pushes me over towards Dallas. Should be one of the better games this week.

SD @ KC+3

My upset special this week. The Chargers are having another underachieving season and have looked plain bad at times despite their 4-2 record. Their schedule has been very soft minus the NE game and they should easily have 5 wins before giving the Jets game away last week. Rivers has not looked like himself. The Chiefs have quietly won their last 3 despite being labeled as one of the worst teams a month into the season. Still don’t expect them to win more than 7 games this season but I like them winning this one outright at home.

-Matt Richardson

Week 7 NFL Picks

Houston @ Tennessee-3
Both of these teams still have a lot to prove and this is a pretty huge game in determining who will win the two team race in the AFC South.  I give a slight edge to Tennessee here coming off of a bye and being at home.  Houston’s big play ability has been compromised by the injury to Johnson, as was evidenced by their game at Baltimore last week where they gave a scrappy effort that wasn’t quite enough.  Chris Johnson should be morphing into mid-season form at this point which could be a scary thing for opponents.  I like Tennessee in what should be one of the top games in a weekend without a lot of prime match-ups.

Chicago PK @ TB
Was interested to see this line at a pick ‘em.  Goes to show that the sharps are not ready to jump on the TB bandwagon quite yet even after their big win against a good Saints team.  Even with Chicago’s offensive line issues I like them in this one.  They have been victims to one of the toughest schedules in the league this year and I think their defense can find ways to frustrate a young Tampa offense.  I expect Chicago to make just enough big plays to squeak this one out.

Atlanta @ Det-3
After watching Detroit a decent amount this year I’m pretty sure that against a top defense, they will be exposed for being a one dimensional pass happy team.  However Atlanta is not the team to expose them.  I can see Detroit continuing to have a very good regular season, but they are a team I would not be shocked to see one and done in the playoffs.  Atlanta, on the other hand, is still kind of a mystery, and I have to believe some of us are getting to the point where we come to grips with the fact “Matty Ice” is only a slightly above average NFL quarterback.

Denver+1 @ Miami
I feel like most all the public money will be on Denver this week but I can’t help it, it’s Tebow mania baby!  Especially after watching Miami’s horrendous performance against a bad Jets team on Monday night…and with them being on 6 days rest versus 14 days for Denver.  I don’t fall on either side of the polarizing Tebow argument…I think he definitely has his shortcomings on his way to being an NFL quarterback, but he also has some intangibles that are hard to put your finger on.  I expect an ugly win from Denver.

Washington @ Carolina-1
Carolina has come close against some very good teams this year…I expect Cam Newton and Co. to take a step forward in getting their second win by beating a John Beck led Washington team at home.

Seattle @ Cleveland-2.5
Seattle’s win against the Giants doesn’t change my mind about them.  I continue to believe Cleveland is a scrappy team that should win 8 this year.  This is a game they should win at home.

SD-2.5 @ NYJ
We might not know much about San Diego yet because of their very soft schedule so far this year…but I know enough to know that they should not be losing to this Jets team.  I don’t care what the final score was last Monday night, the Jets looked bad.  The Jets look almost incapable of making big plays on offense and I expect San Diego to make just enough big plays to take care of this one on the road.

Pittsburgh-4 @ Arizona
Pittsburgh will limp its way to 9-7 or maybe even 10-6 this year because they are Pittsburgh, but that does not erase the problems they have.  On the other hand, I can’t in good conscious put money on this Arizona team getting only 4 point without feeling like it’s being lit on fire.  The Kolb experiment has not gone well and this is a team that could be in competition with Miami and Indy to “suck for Luck” at the end of the season.  I like Pittsburgh by a touchdown even with them having to travel west.

GB-9 @ MIN
Surprised to see this line in single digits with GB being the only NFL team who has looked “scary good”, against a dysfunctional team starting a rookie GB.  I know it’s a divisional game in Minnesota, but GB should win this in the double digits.

BAL-8.5 @ JAX
Yet another crappy Monday night match-up.  Baltimore’s defense has passed the eye test for being the most dominating defensive unit, and I do not expect Jacksonville to score more than 14 points in this game.  It all depends on which offense shows up for Baltimore, and if their good offense shows up, this game will not be close.

Week 4 Recap:
Well I took another week on the chin, going 3-5 after I’d gained some momentum from weeks 2 and 3…The Lions crazy comeback win, and the Bears failure to cover were the most disappointing but oh well that’s the NFL, onto the next week’s lines. First here are a couple thoughts on week 4:
Cam Newton impressed again despite the loss in a tough road game that I didn’t expect to be close. To be a fantasy study in 3 out of your first 4 games is pretty impressive…now if only their D could stop anybody…
The Bill’s road loss to the Bengals didn’t shock me THAT much (even though I felt obligated to pick Buffalo because who really bets on Cincinnati?). The Bills have several weaknesses, particularly on defense, but they are probably a 10-6 wild card team at this point. So they will have a few losses like that. Just rooting for this team not to become the sad story that the 4-0 Bills were in 2008 when they tanked after 6 games.
In all honesty I MIGHT have to reevaluate the Titans. Still not ready to pick them over Houston in the AFC South, but they are probably a little better than I have given them credit for. They’ve won their last 3, whopping a good Baltimore team and punishing a so-so Cleveland team on the road. All that and they haven’t really had Chris Johnson yet, although in week 4 he did show signs of his old self. If Hasselbeck can continue to play well AND they have a dominant Chris Johnson, this team could compete for a wild card spot and MAYBE even the division if Houston does their usual choke act.
I’m glad I’m not a Cowboys fan. It has got to be such a roller coaster living and dying with Romo each week. I refuse to bash the guy because “he is what he is.” He will make some plays for you and for the other team. The week 4 collapse against Detroit I blame more on Dallas’ coaching. Up by that many points in the second half you have to get at least a little more conservative and start running the ball to reduce your risk. Detroit, on the other hand, is a good team but probably not as good as their 4-0 record. They were exposed a little in the first half of that game but managed to come back when the game was given to them. Still give them credit for what they’ve accomplished so far and definitely think they will win a wild card, but they have some weaknesses that are waiting to be exposed by good opponents, specifically good defenses that will punish them for being one dimensional.
Eagles, Eagles, Eagles…I’m sure 1-3 has the fans in Philly panicking and at this point it might be justified. Not quite sure how they managed to give that game away at home to the 49ers of all teams. I got to watch most of the game among Philly fans and admitted I told everyone it was over and not to panic late in the 3rd quarter. The guys I was with laughed at me saying that Philly always lets bad teams back in. I was most shocked with Philly’s “super D” that was unable to stop a very vanilla San Fran offense that lacks playmakers. It’s not over YET for the Eagles, although another loss or two early in the season and it might be. Interested to see if they can get themselves together on what is still a very talented team.
The Steelers should officially be panicking as well. Only watched the first half of this game, but Big Ben was getting abused. Now it looks like he’s injured. With an offensive line that fails to give their QB any protection at all it doesn’t much matter who is back there. Pittsburgh all of a sudden looks like a very average team at 2-2, with one of their wins against a bad Indy team in a close game. If their O-line does not step it up soon they will be no better than an 8-8 team, and the wild card spot I had predicted to them could be going to Tennessee.
I will pat myself on the back for the second week in a row for predicting that the Jets will be exposed. Baltimore “outclassed” them without much offense of their own and a defense that was as dominating of a performance as I’ve seen in a while. Sanchez looked like he wanted to go home early in the second half. The crux of the problem for New York is also their offensive line and their inability to run the ball and stop the run…this was the foundation of their success for the last two years. The Ravens on the other hand dominated in a game where they didn’t play their best football, and Flacco will need to improve if they want to make a Super Bowl run. They have the tools in place in Baltimore if they can put them together.
Week 5 Predictions:
Philly-2
Have to believe this is a must win game for a desperate Philly team. There should be a lot of points on the board in this one, and I like Philly in a shootout. Still not entirely sold on Buffalo, and this will be a great test to see where they’re at. This is the game that can either save Philly’s season or put them one step closer to being a pretty major bust.
Oakland+6
Six points just feels like a lot to be a scrappy Oakland team that a lot of people like. Oakland is one of the few teams who I have not gotten a chance to watch this year but they could easily be 3-1 if not for the amazing Buffalo comeback a couple weeks ago. Again, I am still weary of putting too much stock behind Houston. They do have the talent but we have seen them under-perform before and losing Johnson certainly doesn’t help them.
Saints-6.5 @ Carolina
Still riding the Saints hard…they are 3-1 against the spread with their one loss coming up only 1 yard shy. The Saints are the only REAL team that can challenge GB in the NFC and I will continue to ride them. I know Carolina has looked about as good as a 1-3 team can look and they have been in all their games but this is another case where I feel they will get outclassed. I could see Carolina winning 7 games by the end of the season which is a step forward for that organization…but I would be surprised if they stayed within a touchdown in this one.
Jets @ Pats-9
My Jets bashing continues…we all know the Pats don’t have much mercy and will not mind kicking a wounded rival when they are down. After the Jets embarrassing showing against Baltimore, they will come to play in this one but they have too many holes right now. Maybe if they get blown out again there could be some good lines later in the season that could make them a value pick. But it’s hard for me to see this being one of the classic Pats/Jets games we’ve come to enjoy. However, the Pats defense won’t be able to embarrass them the way Baltimore did, and the Jets really need to hope they can get a semblance of a ground game working if they want this to be competitive.
Sd-4
Maybe I should be a little wary of picking the Chargers here who seem to have a hard time winning decisively against inferior teams…but they are just a much better team than the Broncos. I don’t love this pick because it’s San Diego on the road in October…but I couldn’t look my self in the mirror if I picked Denver getting less than a touchdown.
GB @ Atlanta+6.5
This line opened at 4 and I liked GB, but everyone jumped on GB so hard it is up to 6.5 and I think Atlanta has some value here. Yes, I know GB is the #1 team in the league and the Falcons have underperformed pretty drastically, but they are at home on a nationally televised game. If there is a game for Atlanta to show up in it’s this one.
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh-3
Despite how bad they’ve looked, history tells me that Pittsburgh will do what they need to do to get it together. Now that does not mean they will be a dominant team this season or even make the playoffs, but I expect them to take care of their business at home against a Titans team that has played well.
Bucs+2.5 @ SF
Not a believer in the 49ers…I mean sure they could win the NFC West but what does that even mean? Bucs didn’t look great at home against the Colts but they have more weapons and more talent, and I’ll take them plus the points.
Bears +5.5 @ Lions
Call me crazy but still not buying that Lions stock. I think they are overvalued at 5.5 points against a decent Bears team. I expected this line to be at 3.5 but everyone is going crazy over Detroit. They looked really bad in the first half against Dallas and can thank the Cowboys for that win. I give them credit for their 4-0 record and expect them to win an NFC wild card spot, but I think the Bears deserve a little more respect than they’re getting from this line.

Week 4 Record: 3-5

Season Record: 18-18-1 (.500)

Well week 3 was nice to pull myself out of the gutter and have the NFL world go according to plan (mostly).

Week 3 Takeaways:
Are the Bills definitely for real? In the parity driven NFL there are always one or two teams bound to make the playoffs that no one predicted but the Bills were on my bottom three worst teams to go into the season. I don’t even feel bad saying that because anyone who predicted them as a .500 team would have gotten laughed at. They won’t sustain this pace the whole season, but beating a New England team that usually enjoys stepping on throats after being down 21 points is an eye opener. They are looking like they can definitely contend for a wild card (would be surprised if NE still doesn’t win that division)

The Lions, on the other hand, are definitely for real. I know I have been picking against them on the spreads because the public has been all over them (saved by a half point this week…what a dirty cover for the Vikings) but they have the firepower to definitely nag a wild card berth in the NFC (Packers should never lose that division). How Minnesota found a way to give away a third straight game is beyond me, kind of sad for them actually. I hate to say it, but the Eagles are looking better and better for cutting ties with McNabb when they did (I was against it at the time).

Saints and Texans was one of the best of the week. My readers know I’m a fan of the Saints this year; they will put up enough points this year to cover up their defensive issues and make a serious run in the playoffs. The Texans still need to show that they can close the deal and be a serious contender, the good thing for them is there is no one who can touch them in that division (sorry don’t really take the Hasselbeck led Titans seriously). It will be interesting to see how Houston matures as the season progresses, they certainly have the talent.

Poor Michael Vick, for the record I am on his side for saying he takes too many shots. The refs, the league, and his line can all share in the blame. I think the Eagles SHOULD still be OK, but this is why Super Bowl tickets are not printed in the preseason. My Eagles pick was the worst looking one of the week, and unfortunately Philly does not really have a backup plan at quarterback.  Should Vick not be able to start 14+ games they could be in trouble. Still don’t know if the Giants are for real…I did not take them seriously entering the season.

Finally looked smart for my Jets-bashing! That was an upset waiting to happen. I’m saying it now; the Jets should go 10-6 and miss the playoffs, losing wild card berths to the Bills and Steelers. They are not the high flying team they are trying to become…go back to your smash mouth roots Rex Ryan; he’s gone all New York on us.

Onto week 4:

 
Saints-7 @ Jacksonville
Giving away a full 7 points on the road is not something I generally am too happy about in today’s “everybody is supposed to go 8-8” NFL, but I just think that the Saints are too good and Jacksonville doesn’t have a quarterback to expose the problems the Saints have on D.  The Saints are just a much better team, and as long as they aren’t looking past this game they should win by double digits.

Tennessee @ Cleveland-1
Again, I like the Browns this year.  Last week I made the mistake of calling a 1.5 spread a pick ‘em, haha.  Well of course the time I would fail to consider the full impact of a point would be the time that the Browns win by only one, failing to cover the spread.  Well even if they only win by one again this week it will just be a push so at least I won’t get punished.  I do like the Browns at home against the Titans, and as long as Johnson fails to get his legs going I do not think Hasselbeck will be able to continue to carry Tennessee with their dink and dunk West Coast offense.

Buffalo-3 @ Cincy
Buying into the Buffalo hype here.  If it was a half point more I could probably lean towards Cincy but Buffalo has looked like a much better team, even if they are on the road this week.  Not a big fan of betting “hot” road favorites in general, but Cincinnatti is just too bad on paper for me feel like betting them is not lighting money on fire.  

Minnesota-1 @ KC
Speechless about how Minnesota keeps finding ways to lose games in the 2nd half, and the fact that they covered the 3.5 point spread by losing by a FG in overtime is just nasty, haha.  I have to believe that Minnesota will actually start giving the ball to Peterson, and against a really bad Chiefs team that might be all they have to do.

Carolina @ Chicago-6.5
Newton came back down to earth in week 3, which was ironically his first win.  As I’ve made it known before I’m not a “buyer” on the Bears this season, but they should “outclass” a young Carolina team at home, this might even turn lopsided in Chicago’s favor.  

Pittsburgh+4 @ Houston
Don’t count out Pittsburgh!  This just feels like a bounce back type of game for them that no one expects them to win after a lackluster performance against the Colts.  This could also be the time of year that we start to question if Houston really is legit.  Would not be shocked to see Pittsburgh win this game outright when no one suspects it, even with all their issues.   

NE-4.5 @ Oakland
I like a Bill Bellicheck led team following a loss where they were up 21-0 at one point…I think they will respond.  Not much more to this pick than that.

NYJ @ Ravens-3.5
I’ve been a “seller” on the Jets and a “buyer” on the Ravens all season, so why change now?  I think the Ravens match up very well against this Jets team that is all of a sudden trying to be something that they aren’t.  I look for Ray Rice to have a big game against a defense which has looked very unspectacular at times this season.  　

Week 3 Record: 7-3

Record to Date: 15-13-1 (53.5%)

-Matt Richardson

Well week 2 was a little bit kinder to us, posting a record of 5-4-1 against the spread.  It easily could have been a much better week if not for a late garbage touchdown by the Panthers to cover the spread against the Packers and if the Cowboys could have stretched out that long pass play in overtime an extra two yards to get into the endzone.  But I won’t complain about a winning week, 5-4 comes out to 55% which is the number we shoot for over the long haul.

I am not going to go into too much detail in this week’s blog post…I have a throbbing ear canal infection as I write this and am looking forward to popping some vicodin and curling back up into a fetile position.  The following are my picks, as usual the team I’m picking will have the + or – by their team’s name.

49ers @ Cincy-1.5

Patriots @ Bills+7.5

We’ll see if the Bills are for real in this game.  I think at this point they are about a 9-7 team.  I think 7.5 points is a little much to be giving the home team here.

Houston @ Saints-4

I’m a fan of the Saints this year, only giving up 4 points at home feels like they are undervalued.

Giants @ Eagles-9

I know it’s a divisional game but the Giants just aren’t that good and I expect Philly to win this by double digits.

Dolphins @ Browns -1.5

I still have the Browns as an 8-8 team this year, and the Dolphins probably shouldn’t win more than 6 games.  In what is basically a pick em’ I’ll take the home team.

Lions @ Vikings+3.5

I have been proven wrong so far by betting against the Lions but what can I say I’m a contrarian.  If the Lions score another impressive win on the road I might reconsider my thinking.

Atlanta @ TB-1.5

Jets @ Oakland+3.5

I know the Jets had a “statement win” last week but I am still not a believer.  I’ll take a fiesty Oakland team getting 3.5 points at home.

Ravens-4 @ Rams

The Ravens had their wakeup call last week in what was clearly a week 1 hangover.  The Rams have a lot of issues and I’d be surprised if the Ravens didn’t win by at least a touchdown.

Packers-3.5 @ Bears

Still not a “buyer” of the Bears.  I see them going 8-8 this year and while I wouldn’t be shocked if this game was close I think GB is just too good.

Record to Date: 8-10-1

-Matt Richardson

Well week 1 sure lived up to all the excitement…there were some games that took a lot of people by surprise, myself included as evidenced by my 3-6 record. One should always be careful not to overvalue week one performances but that being said here were some points of interest:

The Saints and Packers are both NFC Super Bowl contenders as evidenced by the first game. What a way to kick off the season! One yard away from covering the spread! Why would you run it up the gut on the last play??!! Play action, Sean Peyton, come on!

Philly certainly looked worthy of the hype. I expected a St. Louis team with some talent to keep the game close at home but injuries to Bradford and Jackson allowed Philly to run away with it. This is certainly bad news for St. Louis who had high hopes to win the West going into the season.

I did have Baltimore beating Pittsburg in a nail-biter but I don’t know anyone who saw that beatdown coming. Pittsburgh looked like they were suffering from more than just a Superbowl hangover; they looked like they were wasted. I have to believe that the Steelers will recover from that performance and remain a force in the AFC North, however it is only natural to bring up questions about their aging defense and offensive line after that showing. Baltimore, on the other hand, looks to enter the equation of AFC Superbowl contenders.

Wow the Colts are going to have a rough go without Manning…can we already crown Houston in that division?

The Bears week 1 victory doesn’t change the fact I expect them to win 8 or 9 games this season, but I am more surprised with the fact Atlanta didn’t really show up for that game. I still want to say Atlanta should win close to 11 games this year, but they will be a team to keep an eye on, and it will be a challenge for them to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start with a showdown against Philly in week 2.

Still scratching my head as to how Romo and Co. found a way to give the game away to the Jets on Sunday night. I am one of the few who continues to think of the Jets as overrated. I do not consider them serious Super Bowl contenders…they should make the playoffs at about 10-6 but do people really think Sanchez can take them to the promise land? I suppose the same can be said for Romo, who is obviously a much better fantasy quarterback than Sanchez but who continues to make poor decisions when it matters most.

Not sure if New England’s torching of Miami’s defense on Monday night is more evidence of how scary their passing game is or how bad Miami’s D is. Regardless, I think New England established themselves as the team to beat in the AFC with that performance. It was only a 7 point game late in the third quarter but honestly felt a lot more lopsided. Should have known better than to bet against Brady in primetime.

Bears @ Saints-6.5

The Saints should expose the Bears for the mediocre team they are and win by at least a touchdown at home.

Cardinals+4.5 @ Washington

Don’t think either of these teams will win more than 9 games at the most. The Redskins had a pretty good showing in week 1 but it will take a lot more than that to make me a believer in Rex Grossman. I consider these teams to be on a fairly equal playing field so when in doubt, take Arizona plus the points.

Seahawks+15 @ Steelers

To be honest…I would tend to stay away from this game. If someone with a gun to my head asked me to pick it I would probably go with Seattle. The reason it’s not a great game is because Pittsburgh should pretty much never lose, the only question is if they can cover. The Steelers should take out their week 1 frustrations against a bad Seahawks team but I could easily see this being a 24-10 type of game. 15 points is a lot for anyone to cover much less a team who appeared to have some of the issues Pittsburgh has so I will lean towards the Seahawks even though I don’t love them.

Packers-10 @ Panthers

It’s hard to make a case for anyone other than Green Bay being the best team right now. And I know, Cam Newton looked good in week 1, but Green Bay will be a tougher task than Arizona. I expect GB to outclass Carolina and would be surprised if it stayed within single digits.

Bucs+3 @ Vikings

Oh my, I have tended to be a McNabb supporter over the years…but he was horrid against San Diego. What have the Vikings gotten themselves into? The Bucs lost a fairly close game to a young, talented team in week 1 but I expect them to win this game outright against Minnesota on the road.

Cleveland-2@ Indy

Now starts the guessing game with just how bad Indy is going to be this year. They probably aren’t as terrible as they appeared to be against Houston but they certainly aren’t a winning team minus the league’s best player. I have the Colts going 4-12 or 5-11 without Manning I think Cleveland should stay close to .500 (even thought .500 teams can’t lose at home to Cincinnati). McCoy showed me just enough to think he’ll have a decent season. Feels like I’m in the Twilight Zone seeing Cleveland as a road favorite against Indy, but I like them in this one.

Chiefs+8.5 @ Detroit

I know, I know, the Chiefs were horrible in week 1 (one of my few correct predictions). In reality, the Chiefs are somewhere in between the team that went 10-6 last year and the team that showed up against Buffalo. I am always hesitant to bet the unproven “bandwagon” teams like the Lions…even though I agree they should have their first winning season in a while. I just think 8.5 is a on the high end for Detroit to be favored by…I would have guessed the line be at more like 6.5. With that in mind, along with the fact they should be embarrassed about their week 1 performance, I like Kansas City + the points.

Philly @ Atlanta+2.5

My second week picking against the super-team that is the Eagles! My only reasoning is that Atlanta is a tough place to win and I am not willing to put a whole lot of stock into the Falcons week 1 performance as of yet. ATL knows they have to avoid 0-2 so I expect them to have a lot of urgency in their home opener. A team that should be as good as the Falcons getting 2.5 points at home? I’ll take it. Should be the game of the week.

Jaguars+9.5 @ Jets

I just think 9.5 is too many to give against a team like the Jets who does not figure to score a lot of points this season. Again, I know Jacksonville is bad but NY didn’t really show me much Sunday night against the Cowboys despite the fact they managed to win by 3 when Dallas imploded in the 4th. I will probably bet against the Jets the majority of the season…I am simply not a believer. The should win enough close games to sneak in as a wild card however. As an aside…this line opened at 11.5 and the “sharps” jumped on Jacksonville so hard it dropped to 9.5 in less than 24 hours.

Dallas-3 @ SF

I consider this to be pretty much a must win game for Dallas if they want to avoid what happened last season. Despite their inability to come up in the clutch, they are still a pretty talented team. I actually have them winning this one on the road by double digits against a pretty bad SF team.

Last Week’s Record: 3-6

Record to Date: 3-6

-Matt Richardson

Source: Amanda MacMillan, CNN Health

In this article you will learn ways to prevent diabetes.

I’m going to be writing a series of blog posts this NFL season that give my weekly predictions as it relates to the point spreads that Vegas puts out on games.  And while I would never actually endorse gambling (wink, wink), I think that the casual fan can learn a lot about where two teams stand in relation to one another by looking at the “lines” Vegas puts out.  Also I will give a full disclaimer that for all the “high rollers” out there, there are sources that go into much more depth than what I will attempt in this blog…I am just a fan that is both excited for the upcoming season and has a little bit of knowledge on how the lines typically move.  Also I will not be addressing every game, some of the lines will be very straightforward, and I am more interested in the lines that will incite the most action.  I will also track my results throughout the season so you can see how good of a source I may or may not be.  Professional gamblers typically aim for a 56% win rate so don’t be too hard on me, haha.

Now for the sake of clarity I will give a super-quick overview of how NFL games are typically bet on for all you noobs out there (all degenerates can skip this paragraph).  Take the first game of the season for example, Saints at Packers.  The Packers, being the Super Bowl Champions, are at home and are favored to win that game.  (If two teams are totally equal in skill Vegas will almost always give a 3 point edge to the home team for the sake of “home field advantage”.)  Now the line on that game has been going back and forth between 4 and 4.5 points, let’s say for the sake of clarity that the Packers are 4 point favorites, which would be indicated by GB-4.  That would mean that if you were to bet on the Packers, in order to win the bet, they would have to win by 5 points or more.  If they only won by 1, 2, or 3 you would lose the bet.  If they won by exactly 4 it would be a “push” and you would get your money back.  On the other hand if you were to bet on the underdog, the Saints+4, you would win the bet if they won the game by any amount, or if they lost the game by less than four points.  A simple way to think of it is when you see Saints+4 or GB-4, think of it as adding four to the final score for the Saints or subtracting four from the final score of the Packers depending on who you bet on.  This determines who “covers the spread.”  A beginners’ mistake that some of my friends typically make is that they assume the favorite will have a + next to their name, but remember you will always subtract points from the favorite or add points to the underdog…this is Vegas’ way of evening things out.  There are countless exotic ways to bet games but this blog will only focus on point spreads through the complete game.

Saints+4 @ Packers

Rule #1 for sports bettors: Always bet against the Super Bowl Champions on week 1.  The reason for this is simple…the casual fan will always bet the Super Bowl winner in week 1, because the team’s victory is still fresh in their minds.  Well those big casinos in Vegas were built by being right against the majority of the public, so what the line-makers in Vegas do is set the line to where the Champion is a bigger favorite then they would be if this was a “normal” game played a few weeks into the season.  In reality GB should probably be a 3-3.5 favorite in this game, so at 4 or especially 4.5 points you are getting a bargain with the Saints.  People forget the fact about the fact that you are giving 4 points to an elite, top 5 quarterback in Drew Brees…and yes, GB does have the advantage of being at home with a pumped up crowd but there is always the real risk of the Super Bowl hangover that people seem to forget about…and I think the Saints will have a bad taste in their mouth after that Seattle game in the playoffs.

Steelers @ Baltimore-2.5  

This will no doubt be a week 1 bloodbath against two bitter rivals.  Vegas is making a statement by only having Baltimore as 2.5 pt. favorites in this game.  They are saying that they think Pittsburg is a slightly better team skill-wise, because remember the default advantage for the home team is 3 points and the Ravens are favored by less than that.  And I would agree with that at this point based on how the preseason has looked…the Steelers have looked a little more together, although both teams have offensive line issues.  Every time these teams play it seems to be decided by a field goal.  If the line was at 3, I think Pittsburg would be a better bet, but at 2.5 I think the Ravens have value here.  They are at home and have a very bad taste in their mouth from how their playoffs ended.  Also it seems that the coaching staff is going to finally hand the keys to the offense over the Flacco and he appears ready to run with it.  The one roadblock Baltimore has to overcome if they want to be an elite team is Pittsburg…it will be hard to find a more intense week 1 game.

Lions @ Tampa-1

Was surprised at this line…Tampa is a team with a lot of young talent.  Detroit has been getting a lot of hype this offseason so I guess this line reflects that.  I think teams these are very close skill-wise and would not be surprised if they both finished somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7.  Not sure why Tampa is not favored by a full 3 points, I like them in this one.

Atlanta-2.5 @ Chicago

Atlanta is a significantly better team than Chicago.  The Bears were very fortunate to make it to the NFC Championship last season.  Being favored by less than 3 makes this an easy decision in favor of the Falcons.

Buffalo+6.5 @ Kansas City

Ok, I know Buffalo is bad, but Kansas City is not that good either.  They benefitted from a very soft schedule last season and will probably be lucky to win 8 games this year.  I think 6.5 points is a lot to give anyone playing Kansas City.

Philly @ St. Louis+4.5

I might not be making friends with all of our Philly readers by picking St. Louis in this one so let me explain myself.  I like Philly, on paper they are a very good team that should contend for a Super Bowl berth.  Two reasons I am picking St. Louis+4.5. 1) I am always wary of betting road favorites early in the season. 2) From a bettors’ standpoint…always be wary of betting highly “public” teams that have made a lot of offseason moves.  The Eagles have made a lot of moves and gotten a lot of ESPN time this offseason so the casual fan will be picking them in this game, and that is who Vegas makes their money off of.  I think St. Louis should be able to run the ball enough eat some clock and keep the ball out of Vick’s hands, and wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this game close.

Seattle+6 @ San Fran

What am I missing here?  San Fran is really favored by 6 points??  I didn’t think they even had a quarterback?  I expected them to be favored by 3 against a bad Seattle team but I will bet any team getting 6 points against San Francisco.

Dallas+4.5 @ Jets

Is this the year that Dallas comes flies in under the radar?  It’s a position they aren’t used to being in but I kind of like the fact that no one is talking about them.  I see them having a bounce back season if they can stay healthy. The Jets are good but probably a little overvalued here, they were another team to make a lot of big free agent moves but who knows how they will gel together in the first couple weeks with the abbreviated preseason.

New England @ Miami+7

A full touchdown feels like a lot to give Miami at home against a divisional opponent.  I don’t expect them to be very good this year, but this is another example of a public team (the Pats) being favored by more than they should be.  Who knows New England could go off like they have done from time to time in prime time, but I expect Miami to keep this game close.

-Matt Richardson

Source: Phil Sheridan, Philly.com

Michael Vick’s story of redemption ended happily for him Monday. Now, with his signature on a new nine-figure contract, comes the ever-after part of his tale.

Source: John Tamny, Forbes

Though his ongoing illness made last week’s resignation less than surprising, the departure of Apple‘s Steve Jobs from the innovator’s executive suite was and will remain big news. With good reason.